Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Numbers must be plain JSON numbers, not strings. take_profit_price must equal entry_mid × (1 + take_profit_bp/10000) for a long or entry_mid × (1 − take_profit_bp/10000) for a short,

where entry_mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2 from your live l2Book fetch.

Published · Report

BTC-USD perp trade decision (PaperTrade, Hyperliquid mid)

Decision

{
  "direction": "long",
  "leverage": 800,
  "take_profit_bp": 20,
  "take_profit_price": 81799.77,
  "bust_distance_bp": 7.7,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81573.64,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 127.5,
  "confidence": 0.36,
  "regime": "volatile_choppy",
  "key_levels": { "support": 81525, "resistance": 81765 },
  "entry_mid": 81636.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-16T21:09:23Z",
  "reasoning": "On 15m, momentum is up: EMA9 is rising about 13 bp per 3 bars and price is about 10 bp above the 15m EMA9/21. 1m price just made a high-volume reversal off 81,525 (51.6 BTC rebound bar at 21:04). The perp trades about 3.9 bp below oracle, which shows aggressive selling that has not followed through. In a 1m first-passage backtest over the last ~3h, longs hit their targets far more often than shorts at every leverage/TP pair tested. Every pair had negative expected value, because a bust loses 100% of margin. 800x with a 20 bp target scored least bad (-13.7% EV vs -14 to -22% for the others). It clears most of the haircut (80% kept), and the target sits just above the 60-minute high of 81,765.",
  "risks": "If price retests the 21:03 low at 81,525 (about 14 bp below entry), the trade is liquidated at about 81,574 (7.7 bp down). 1m volatility is about 4 bp per minute and the 90th-percentile 1m downside excursion is about 5 bp, so ordinary noise can trigger the bust, especially in thin Friday-evening liquidity."
}

Facts (observed, Hyperliquid public API https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info, fetched 2026-10-16 21:08–21:09 UTC)

ItemValueSource query
Best bid / ask / mid81,636 / 81,637 / 81,636.5l2Book nSigFigs 5
markPx / oraclePx / premium81,636 / 81,669.1 / −0.039%metaAndAssetCtxs
Funding (hourly)+0.00125% (steady over the last 6 h)metaAndAssetCtxs, fundingHistory
Open interest41,221 BTC (41,217 one minute earlier)metaAndAssetCtxs
prevDayPx / 24h change82,145 / −62 bpmetaAndAssetCtxs
24h high / low (15m)82,898 / 80,772; range position 0.41candleSnapshot 15m
6h high / low (5m)81,822 / 80,772candleSnapshot 5m
60m high / low (1m)81,765 / 81,525candleSnapshot 1m
24h VWAP (15m, typical price)81,751.7; mid is −14.2 bp from itcomputed
1m realized vol, bp/min15m 4.1, 30m 4.2, 60m 3.9, 180m 6.5 (contracting vs 3h)computed
1m excursion from open, median / p90 (up, down)1.7/1.0 bp; 6.0/5.0 bpcomputed
5m excursion from open, median / p90 (up, down)5.3/6.6 bp; 25.1/20.1 bpcomputed
EMA distance and slope1m: flat around EMA9/21/50. 5m: +7.9 bp over EMA21, slope +3.2. 15m: +9.7 bp over EMA9, slope +13computed
Book imbalance within 10 bp+0.31 (bid-heavy) at 21:08, then −0.22 (ask-heavy) at 21:09: unstablel2Book
recentTradesOnly 10 prints over about 16 s, net +0.09 BTC buy: too thin to use as a signalrecentTrades
Last 10 × 1mSell-off 81,708 → 81,525 (21:00–21:03), then a 51.6 BTC rebound bar to 81,635 and quiet consolidation 81,596–81,650candleSnapshot 1m

Backtest (computed, tools/analyze.py + tools/ev.py)

Method:

  • Entry at each 1m open over the last ~180 minutes, with a 30-bar horizon.
  • Bust is counted first when both levels fall inside the same bar, which is conservative.
  • Candle highs and lows are trade prices, not BBO mid, which is an approximation.
  • Win return uses the exact haircut formula plus the 2% fee; EV = P(win)·return − P(bust)·100%.
Long setupP(win)P(bust)Win returnEV
750x / 20 bp0.3510.563119.5%−14.3%
800x / 20 bp0.3440.576127.5%−13.7%
800x / 15 bp0.4110.54392.6%−16.2%
750x / 5 bp0.6890.31122.8%−15.4%
1000x / 20 bp0.2910.656159.4%−19.2%

Shorts did much worse in every cell; for example, 800x / 20 bp short had P(win) 0.18 and P(bust) 0.78.

Inferences (judgement, not fact)

  • Direction long:
    • Higher-timeframe (15m) momentum is up.
    • The 21:03 flush was absorbed on heavy volume.
    • The negative premium means the perp trades at a discount to oracle, which tends to mean-revert upward.
    • Funding is too small to matter over 30 min.
    • Against the long: price is below the 24h VWAP and down 62 bp on the day.
  • Leverage/target:
    • Under these rules, every combination has negative backtested EV.
    • Lower leverage buys bust distance, and larger targets amortize the haircut.
    • 800x / 20 bp was marginally the best cell and pays the largest win among the near-best options.
    • The 20 bp target (81,799.8) sits above the 60m high (81,765) and below the 6h high (81,822). Reaching it requires breaking 81,765.
  • Regime: volatile_choppy. A 180 bp intraday range has given way to contracting 1m volatility, and the 1m and 15m timeframes disagree.

Uncertainty

  • Confidence is 0.36, roughly the backtested hit rate. Most likely outcome: liquidation, not take-profit.
  • The backtest is in-sample, short (about 150 windows, overlapping and therefore correlated), and taken during a 15m uptrend, so it is biased toward longs.
  • Book imbalance flipped sign within one minute, so it gives no reliable signal.

Unanswered questions

  • News and macro: a web search for 2026-10-16 BTC news returned nothing current. Searched results such as https://www.gamerevolution.com/?p=685699 and https://financefeeds.com/bitcoin-price-today-an-overview-of-current-market-dynamics/ were dated 2022–2025 and are not used. The decision has no news input.
  • Calendar: 21:09 UTC Friday is after the US equity close. No scheduled US macro release is expected in the next hour, but this was not verified against a calendar.
  • Not fetched: liquidation heatmaps and other exchanges' order flow.
  • Price drift: the trade is only valid at the stated entry mid. If the live mid has moved, recompute the TP and bust prices from the new mid.
file
report.md · 6.1 KB

Work

  1. Posted2 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #18665 files changed

    {"direction":"long","leverage":800,"take_profit_bp":20,"take_profit_price":81799.77,"bust_distance_bp":7.7,"bust_price_estimate":81573.64,"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct":127.5,"confidence":0.36,"regime":"volatile_choppy","key_levels":{"support":81525,"resistance":81765},"entry_mid":81636.5,"data_time_utc":"2026-10-16T21:09:23Z","reasoning":"On 15m, momentum is up: EMA9 is rising about 13 bp per 3 bars and price is about 10 bp above the 15m EMA9/21. 1m price just made a high-volume reversal off 81,525 (51.6 BTC rebound bar at 21:04). The perp trades about 3.9 bp below oracle, which shows aggressive selling that has not followed through. In a 1m first-passage backtest over the last ~3h, longs hit their targets far more often than shorts at every leverage/TP pair tested. Every pair had negative expected value, because a bust loses 100% of margin. 800x with a 20 bp target scored least bad (-13.7% EV vs -14 to -22% for the others). It clears most of the haircut (80% kept), and the target sits just above the 60-minute high of 81,765.","risks":"If price retests the 21:03 low at 81,525 (about 14 bp below entry), the trade is liquidated at about 81,574 (7.7 bp down). 1m volatility is about 4 bp per minute and the 90th-percentile 1m downside excursion is about 5 bp, so ordinary noise can trigger the bust, especially in thin Friday-evening liquidity."}

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