Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

For IMD file-output jobs, write this JSON to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final chat reply.

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Use JSON numbers. entry_mid = (bid+ask)/2 from live l2Book; take_profit_price = entry_mid × (1 ± take_profit_bp/10000), + for long and − for short.

Published · Report

Direction
short
Leverage
750
Take profit bp
15
Take profit price
81,480.1
Bust distance bp
8.53
Bust price estimate
81,672.1
Expected net return on margin pct
88
Confidence
0.35
Regime
trending_down
Key levels
support 81,400 · resistance 81,800
Entry mid
81,602.5
Data time utc
2026-10-16T23:30:53Z

Reasoning

Fact (Hyperliquid API, 23:30:53Z): BTC fell 23.6 bp over the last 60 1m candles from 81796 to a 81602.5 mid, printing successive lower lows (last candle low 81591). The mid sits 11.6 bp below the 1m EMA21 and 13 bp below the 5m EMA21, 1m realized vol is rising (1.95 -> 2.39 -> 2.85 bp/min over 60/30/15 min), and the latest 10 prints were about 95% sell volume (0.86 vs 0.04 BTC); mark is about 3 bp below oracle (premium -0.0003). Inference: momentum favours a continuation lower. In a replay of the last hour, a short with an 8.5 bp bust hit 15 bp first in 30 of 31 decided windows, but that is in-sample on the same down-leg. A 6h 5m replay that assumes the adverse move comes first inside each candle gives only about 30% wins for either side, so I picked the lowest leverage (750x, 8.5 bp bust) for the most room. I set a 15 bp target, which keeps about 80% of the gain after the haircut, about 88% on margin.

Risks

A 22 BTC bid wall at 81602 and a 6h VWAP about 25 bp lower (81396) could cause a short-covering bounce of about 9 bp to 81672, which liquidates the trade. Typical 5m candles already swing about 10 bp, more than the bust distance. Thin Friday-night liquidity makes sudden spikes more likely.

file
report.md · 1.6 KB

Work

  1. Posted1 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #5411 file changed

    The trade decision is short at 750x with a 15 bp take-profit, but confidence is only 0.35 and liquidation is the more likely outcome. The JSON is in artifacts/report.md and parses cleanly.

    {"direction":"short","leverage":750,"take_profit_bp":15,"take_profit_price":81480.1,"bust_distance_bp":8.53,"bust_price_estimate":81672.1,"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct":88.0,"confidence":0.35,"regime":"trending_down","key_levels":{"support":81400,"resistance":81800},"entry_mid":81602.5,"data_time_utc":"2026-10-16T23:30:53Z", ...}
    

    The full reasoning and risks text is in the file.

    Why short: all data came from the Hyperliquid API at 23:30:53 UTC.

    • BTC fell 23.6 bp in the last hour and kept making lower lows.
    • The mid of 81,602.5 is 11.6 bp below the 1-minute 21-period average and 13 bp below the 5-minute one.
    • Per-minute volatility is rising: 1.95 → 2.39 → 2.85 bp over the last 60, 30 and 15 minutes.
    • The last 10 trades were about 95% sells.
    • The mark price is about 3 bp below the oracle price.

    Why the odds are poor: I replayed TP-versus-liquidation on past candles.

    • Last hour (1-minute candles): a short hit the target first in 30 of 31 windows that reached either price. That sample is the same falling move the trade is based on, so it overstates the edge.
    • Last 6 hours (5-minute candles): only about 30% of windows hit the target first, long or short. This replay assumes the adverse move comes first within each candle, so it leans pessimistic.

    A typical 5-minute candle moves about 10.7 bp, which is more than any bust distance allowed here. That is why I chose the lowest leverage (750x, 8.5 bp of room). The 15 bp target still keeps about 80% of the gain after the haircut, or about 88% on margin.

    Main risk: a bounce of about 9 bp to 81,672 liquidates the trade. Two things make that more likely: a 22 BTC bid sitting at the best price, and the 6-hour volume-weighted average price being about 25 bp lower at 81,396. Liquidity is also thin on a Friday night.

    Not checked: I did not look at news, the macro calendar, liquidation heatmaps or other exchanges. I can't rule out an event in the next 30 minutes.

    I also wrote a README.md covering the question, sources and limits, split into facts, inferences, uncertainty and what wasn't checked. It is staged but not committed, because git has no author name or email set on this machine and I didn't change git config. The report file is left untracked for upload, as required.

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    README.md
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