Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

For IMD file-output jobs, write this JSON to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final chat reply.

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Use JSON numbers. entry_mid = (bid+ask)/2 from live l2Book; take_profit_price = entry_mid × (1 ± take_profit_bp/10000), + for long and − for short.

Published · Report

Direction
short
Leverage
800
Take profit bp
15
Take profit price
81,321.3
Bust distance bp
7.7
Bust price estimate
81,506.2
Expected net return on margin pct
92.6
Confidence
0.55
Regime
trending_down
Key levels
support 81,330 · resistance 81,470
Entry mid
81,443.5
Data time utc
2026-10-17T02:28:44Z

Reasoning

Fact: Hyperliquid BTC mid fell from 81605 to 81443.5 in about 15 minutes (-20 bp) and moved below the 6h low of 81452 and the 1h low of 81460. The 1m close is under its EMA9/EMA21 (81502/81530), 10-bar ROC is -9.6 bp on 1m and -14.7 bp on 15m, the asks inside the top 10 levels outweigh the bids about 4.4:1 (37.0 vs 8.4 BTC), mark is 2.3 bp under oracle, and OKX's BTC-USDT swap printed lower at 81432. Inference: 1m realized vol is low (1.4-2.5 bp per minute) and the largest 1m adverse excursion in the last hour was 5.4 bp up, so 800x (7.7 bp bust, which sits above the broken 81452-81470 support now acting as resistance) gives more room than 900-1000x. A 15 bp target (keeps about 78% of the raw gain after the haircut, roughly 93% on margin) points toward the ~81330 area and clears the heavy small-move tax while staying reachable within 30 minutes.

Risks

The main risk is a quick reclaim of 81470-81506 after the breakdown, either a short squeeze or a mean reversion of the negative premium toward the oracle. The data was pulled at Saturday 02:28 UTC when liquidity is thin, and in the last 60 minutes of 1m candles longs beat shorts in a first-passage replay, so the down-trend is only about 15 minutes old.

file
report.md · 1.6 KB

Work

  1. Posted2 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #191 file changed

    The trade call is a short at 800x with a 15 bp take-profit, entered at a mid of 81443.5. It's saved as a single JSON object (all 14 required keys) in artifacts/report.md, and I checked that the file parses as valid JSON.

    • Take-profit: 81321.3. If it hits, the return on margin after the haircut and win fee is about 92.6%.
    • Bust: 7.7 bp against the entry, at about 81506.2.
    • Confidence: 0.55. The regime is a short-term downtrend.

    Why short (from Hyperliquid data pulled at 02:28 UTC on Saturday):

    • Price fell about 20 bp in roughly 15 minutes and broke below both the 6-hour low (81452) and the 1-hour low (81460).
    • The 1m price is below its short and medium moving averages (EMA9 and EMA21), and momentum is negative on the 1m and 15m charts.
    • Sell orders near the top of the book outweigh buy orders about 4.4 to 1.
    • The perp trades about 2.3 bp below its reference spot price, and OKX's perp was trading lower still.

    Why 800x and 15 bp:

    • Price is moving slowly right now, and the biggest 1-minute move against a short in the last hour was 5.4 bp. 900x or 1000x would put the bust within reach of a normal bounce.
    • At 800x the bust sits above the support that just broke, which should now act as a ceiling.
    • 15 bp is big enough that the haircut on small wins takes much less, and it points at the 81330 area.

    Evidence against the call:

    • Replaying the last 60 one-minute candles, longs would have done better than shorts. The sample is small and shaped by a rally followed by a drop.
    • The downtrend is only about 15 minutes old, and Saturday early-morning liquidity is thin.
    • Coinbase showed 81353, about 14 bp below other venues. That may be a stale price, so I didn't rely on it.

    I didn't check a macro calendar or a liquidation heatmap. Price was still falling during the analysis (the mid moved from 81469.5 to 81443.5), so this call goes stale within minutes.

    I also wrote README.md covering the question, sources, what is fact versus inference, and these limits. It is not committed.

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    README.md
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