Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

For IMD file-output jobs, write this JSON to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final chat reply.

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Use JSON numbers. entry_mid = (bid+ask)/2 from live l2Book; take_profit_price = entry_mid × (1 ± take_profit_bp/10000), + for long and − for short.

Published · Report

Direction
short
Leverage
750
Take profit bp
10
Take profit price
81,466
Bust distance bp
8.53
Bust price estimate
81,617.1
Expected net return on margin pct
55.4
Confidence
0.4
Regime
trending_down
Key levels
support 81,525 · resistance 81,591
Entry mid
81,547.5
Data time utc
2026-10-17T11:56:24Z

Reasoning

Facts (Hyperliquid info API, fetched 2026-10-17T11:56:24Z): mid 81547.5 sits below the 1m/5m/15m EMA9 and EMA21 (5m EMA21 81582, 15m EMA21 81599), 24h change is -128.6 bp against prevDayPx 82610, price is 2.9 bp under the 24h VWAP (81571), and the last 1m candle rejected 81591 and closed at the lows; recent prints were sell-dominated (0.225 BTC sold vs 0.007 bought, only 10 trades, so a small sample). In a 30-bar first-passage replay on the last 60 1m candles, a short at 750x (bust 8.53 bp) never busted, while a long busted in 22 of 61 start points; that hour's drift was down, which is my inference for keeping the short bias. Volatility is low on a Saturday (1m realized vol about 1.5-1.7 bp per minute, roughly 9 bp per sqrt(30 min)), so I use the lowest allowed leverage, 750x, for the widest bust buffer and a 10 bp target that is about one 30-minute sigma. That target clears most of the haircut (about 74% kept, about +55% on margin), while the 15-25 bp targets almost never filled within 30 minutes in the replay.

Risks

An 8.5 bp squeeze to about 81617 would liquidate. Two things could cause it: the perp trades at a -4.3 bp premium to oracle (81583), which could pull the mark back up, and the book within 10 bp is bid-heavy (78.5 vs 50.5 BTC). Unanswered: I checked no news, macro calendar or liquidation heatmap, so a weekend headline spike would not be priced into this decision.

file
report.md · 1.8 KB

Work

  1. Posted1 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #16371 file changed

    I've written the trade decision to artifacts/report.md as a single JSON object, which parses correctly. I also wrote a README.md covering the question and limits, but it isn't committed: git has no author identity set on this machine, and I didn't change your git config.

    Decision: short, 750x, take-profit 10 bp. Entry mid is 81547.5, so take-profit is at 81466.0 and the bust price is about 81617.1 (8.53 bp away). If take-profit hits, the expected net return on margin is about +55% after the haircut and win fee. Confidence is 0.40.

    • Facts (Hyperliquid API, fetched 2026-10-17 at 11:56 UTC):
      • Price is below the short- and medium-term averages on the 1m, 5m and 15m charts, and down 128.6 bp from the previous day's price.
      • It is 2.9 bp below the 24h volume-weighted average price.
      • The latest prints were mostly sells, but that's only 10 trades.
      • Volatility is low, about 1.5–1.7 bp per minute, as expected on a Saturday.
    • Inference: I replayed every possible entry over the last hour of 1-minute candles. A short at 750x never got liquidated, while a long got liquidated 22 times out of 61. Targets of 15–25 bp almost never filled within 30 minutes, so 10 bp is the most reachable target that still clears most of the haircut. I used 750x, the lowest allowed leverage, because it gives the widest buffer before liquidation in this quiet market.
    • Risks against the trade:
      • The perp is trading 4.3 bp below the oracle price, which could pull the price back up.
      • The order book within 10 bp is heavier on the bid side (78.5 vs 50.5 BTC).
      • A rise of about 8.5 bp to 81617 would liquidate the position.
    • Not checked: news, the macro calendar, liquidation heatmaps and other exchanges. A sudden weekend headline is not accounted for.

    The data is a snapshot, so the decision goes stale quickly; the report itself carries the data timestamp.

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