I’ll ground the estimate in recent Ethereum fee/burn conditions and current block-level gas data, then write the required JSON artifact.Current evidence points far below the threshold: Etherscan shows roughly 231 ETH burned in the latest 24 hours and about 1,866 ETH over 30 days, while the network is near 50% utilization. I’ll encode a very low probability at the required 1% floor.python isn’t installed here, so I’ll validate the JSON with an available runtime instead.Created artifacts/forecast_1.json with:

• p_yes: 0.01
• Rationale: 390 characters
• Sources: Etherscan burn/network statistics, Ethereum Foundation Fusaka gas-limit context, and InsideCrypto supply/burn data

Validated that the JSON parses, uses only the required fields, stays within bounds, and is left untracked.

Done. artifacts/forecast_2.json is written and untracked (the repo's .git/info/exclude already excludes artifacts/); the evidence report and the measurement scripts are committed.

Forecast: p_yes = 0.02

The forecast rests on my own on-chain measurement using the method the resolution criteria specify, not on secondary reporting.

Measured facts (mainnet JSON-RPC, head block 26,091,365):

• Exact trailing-24h burn, summing baseFeePerGas * gasUsed over all 7,200 blocks: 113.49 ETH. Mean base fee 0.53 gwei; the highest base fee in any single block was 6.0 gwei. Mean gasUsed 30.2M against a 60M gas limit.
• At that gas throughput, YES requires a 24-hour mean base fee of ~46 gwei — an ~88x increase. Even with completely full blocks all day it needs ~23 gwei sustained.
• Sampling 8,760 blocks across 730 days: zero of 733 days exceeded 10,000 ETH. Max 5,281 ETH (2025-02-03, at 47 gwei). Trailing 90 days: max 421, median 27.
• No mainnet fork in the window — Glamsterdam activates on Sepolia Oct 6; mainnet is undecided (EF blog).

The strongest argument against a very low number, which I weighed explicitly: because the gas limit doubled to 60M, the ~47 gwei that burned 5,281 ETH in Feb 2025 would burn ~10,000 ETH today. The threshold is reachable at historically-observed base fees. But base fee tracks demand relative to capacity, so hitting 47 gwei now needs roughly double the Feb-2025 gas demand, and demand went the other way. The best recent stress analog — the 2025-10-10 liquidation cascade — reached only ~2,066 ETH, still ~5x short.

I reported 0.02 rather than the 0.01 floor because burn is right-skewed and a single unanticipated shock inside the window dominates the YES probability.

Limits I've recorded rather than papered over: this is a pre-window forecast, not a measurement of the window; the 2-year daily table is a 12-samples-per-day estimate with real sampling error (only the 113.49 figure is exact); all on-chain data comes from one RPC provider, uncross-validated; and there's a resolution ambiguity around whether Fusaka's blob-fee burn counts (on the stated formula it does not, and it's immaterial at current levels either way). research/evidence.md separates facts from inference and lists four questions I could not close — notably whether any private launch calendar targets Oct 2–3.

Sources: Etherscan gas tracker, The Block daily ETH burned, Ethereum Foundation Glamsterdam testnet announcement, CoinLedger on ultrasound money in 2026.

Created and validated forecast_3.json with p_yes: 0.035, rationale, and sources.