Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Numbers must be plain JSON numbers, not strings. take_profit_price must equal entry_mid × (1 + take_profit_bp/10000) for a long or entry_mid × (1 − take_profit_bp/10000) for a short,

where entry_mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2 from your live l2Book fetch.

Published · Report

BTC-USD perp trade decision (PaperTrade, 750–1000x)

Read this first: I could not fetch the Hyperliquid data this decision is supposed to use. The Hyperliquid /info API only accepts POST requests. In this run, every shell command failed before it started (apply-seccomp: write /proc/self/setgroups ... Permission denied), so I could not use curl or Python. The only HTTP tool that worked sends GET requests, and Hyperliquid answered those with HTTP 405 Method Not Allowed. Binance's API returned HTTP 451. So every number below comes from the Coinbase Exchange public API (BTC-USD spot) as a stand-in. It is not the Hyperliquid mid that PaperTrade fills at. Before you place the order, fetch the live Hyperliquid l2Book mid, then recompute entry_mid, take_profit_price and bust_price_estimate with the same bp distances. The usual spread between Hyperliquid perp and Coinbase spot is a few bp, which is the same size as the bust distance.

Decision

{"direction":"long","leverage":750,"take_profit_bp":10,"take_profit_price":81673.46,"bust_distance_bp":8.53,"bust_price_estimate":81522.24,"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct":54.3,"confidence":0.38,"regime":"trending_up","key_levels":{"support":81542,"resistance":81682},"entry_mid":81591.865,"data_time_utc":"2026-10-16T20:58:03Z","reasoning":"Since the 24h low near 80694 (around 17:15 UTC), the 15m candles have made nine straight higher lows (80797 to 81030 to 81197 to 81216 to 81230 to 81399 to 81465 to 81542 to 81542). The last 60 1m candles closed about +32 bp. At the snapshot, price had pulled back about 11 bp from the 81682 high toward support at 81542 that has held twice. 750x gives the widest survivable adverse move (8.53 bp), which puts the bust at 81522, below that support. A 10 bp target sits under the 81682 resistance and keeps about 72% of the gross gain after the haircut (54% return on margin).","risks":"The likeliest cause of liquidation is a break of the 81542 support during thin Friday-evening, post-US-close liquidity: single 1m candles in the last hour fell as much as 13 bp from their open. A second risk is a gap between the Hyperliquid mid and the Coinbase proxy price I used."}

Evidence (facts — what the sources returned)

All of this was fetched on 2026-10-16 at about 20:53–20:58 UTC. Note that WebFetch can return cached responses up to 15 minutes old.

ItemValueSource
Last trade, bid / ask81591.86, 81591.86 / 81591.87 at 20:58:03 UTChttps://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/ticker
24h volume (Coinbase)about 4,910 BTCsame
Proxy mid(81591.86 + 81591.87) / 2 = 81591.865derived
1m candles, last 60 (19:54–20:53 UTC)close 81392.33 → 81653.92 (+32 bp); high 81681.80, low 81393.73 (35 bp range)https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=60
1m candles, last 15high 81681.80, low 81542.42 (17 bp range)same
15m candles, 24hclose 96 bars earlier 82022.8 → now about 81612 (−51 bp over 24h); 24h high 82831.01 (about 12:15 UTC); 24h low 80693.69 (about 17:15 UTC)https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=900
15m lows since the 24h low80693.69, 80789.92, 80796.96, 80889.51, 81197.16, 81215.93, 81230.12, 81399.21, 81465.03, 81542.31, 81542.42same
Bids within 0.10% of best bid31.6 BTC (10.7 BTC within 0.05%); best bid 81592.3https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/book?level=2 (ask side was outside the part of the page I read, so no imbalance figure)

Calculations

  • 1 bp ≈ $8.16 at 81,592.
  • Bust distance at 750x = 10000/750 − 4.8 = 8.53 bp (about $69.6). Bust price ≈ 81591.865 × (1 − 0.000853) = 81522.24.
  • Take-profit price = 81591.865 × 1.0010 = 81673.46.
  • Haircut at a 10 bp target: move after the 0.2 bp deadband = 9.8 bp. scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/14.7 + 100000/(1e6 × 0.00098 × 814.598)) = 0.90 / 1.1933 = 0.7542. Net = 0.00098 × 750 × 0.7542 × 0.98 = 54.3% of margin.
  • Alternatives I considered (750x, using a driftless random-walk hit probability p ≈ bust / (bust + TP)):
    • 5 bp: p ≈ 0.63, about +22% if it hits.
    • 10 bp: p ≈ 0.46, +54%.
    • 12 bp: p ≈ 0.42, +67%, but the target would be above the 81682 resistance.
    • 20 bp: p ≈ 0.30, about +119%.
    • With no directional edge, every one of these has negative expected value, roughly −0.23 to −0.34 of margin. The trade only pays if the uptrend drift is real. I picked 10 bp because it is the largest target that still sits below visible resistance.
  • 1000x would leave only 5.2 bp to the bust. Several of the last 60 1m candles moved more than 5.2 bp against a long from their open within a single minute: 81607.71 → 81542.42 (8.0 bp), 81466.30 → 81399.21 (8.2 bp) and 81540.09 → 81432.01 (13.2 bp). That is why I used the minimum leverage. Of those 60 candles, 2 had an open-to-low drop larger than the 8.53 bp bust distance at 750x.

Inferences (judgement, not fact)

  • Regime: trending_up on the 15m and 1m charts, recovering inside a 24h downtrend. The higher-lows structure since about 17:15 UTC is the main evidence for going long.
  • The snapshot price (81592) is a pullback of about 11 bp from the high. Buying here puts the entry near support rather than chasing the move.
  • It is Friday 21:00 UTC, after the US equity close, heading into the weekend. Liquidity is usually thinner, which makes wick risk worse in both directions.

Uncertainty and unanswered questions

  • Not observed: Hyperliquid mid, mark/oracle premium, funding, open interest, Hyperliquid book imbalance, recentTrades CVD, and liquidation heatmaps. All the brief's Hyperliquid-specific metrics are missing because of the tool failure described at the top.
  • I did not check the macro calendar for the next hour (major US releases are not normally scheduled for Friday evening, but I did not confirm that).
  • Coinbase candles may lag by up to about 5 minutes because of response caching. The 1m series ends at 20:53 UTC while the ticker is from 20:58 UTC.
  • Confidence of 0.38 reflects all of this. With an 8.53 bp bust, an ordinary 1m wick can liquidate the position.
file
report.md · 6.2 KB

Work

  1. Posted3 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #1791 file changed

    I wrote artifacts/report.md (the required output, left untracked) and a root README.md. The decision is not based on Hyperliquid data: I couldn't reach Hyperliquid, so every price in it comes from Coinbase spot instead.

    Why there's no Hyperliquid data: every shell command failed before it ran, with apply-seccomp: write /proc/self/setgroups ... Permission denied. That ruled out curl and Python. The only web tool that worked sends GET requests, and Hyperliquid's /info API only accepts POST; it answered HTTP 405. Binance's API answered HTTP 451. So the report uses Coinbase BTC-USD spot (ticker, 1m and 15m candles, order book), labelled as a stand-in throughout. This means:

    • entry_mid is not the Hyperliquid mid that PaperTrade fills and liquidates at.
    • Funding, open interest, mark/oracle premium, Hyperliquid book imbalance and recent-trade flow were not observed.

    The decision:

    • Direction and size: long, 750x, take-profit 10 bp.
    • Prices: entry 81,591.87 (Coinbase mid at 20:58 UTC), take-profit 81,673.46, bust about 81,522.24 (8.53 bp away).
    • Payoff: +54.3% of margin if the take-profit hits.
    • Confidence: 0.38.
    • Evidence: since the 24h low of about 80,694, the 15m candles have made a steady run of higher lows. The last hour closed up about 32 bp, and price had pulled back to just above support at about 81,542. The bust price sits below that support, and the target sits below resistance at about 81,682.
    • Expected value: if the uptrend doesn't continue, every target I modelled loses money on average, which the report states. Two 1m candles in the last hour moved further against a long than the 8.53 bp bust distance.

    Before anyone acts on this, fetch the live Hyperliquid l2Book mid and recompute the entry, take-profit and bust prices with the same bp distances. A few bp of gap between Hyperliquid and Coinbase is the same size as the bust distance.

    Nothing is committed, because git couldn't run either. README.md still needs committing once the shell works.

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