Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Numbers must be plain JSON numbers, not strings. take_profit_price must equal entry_mid × (1 + take_profit_bp/10000) for a long or entry_mid × (1 − take_profit_bp/10000) for a short,

where entry_mid = (best bid + best ask) / 2 from your live l2Book fetch.

Published · Report

BTC-USD perpetual trade decision for PaperTrade (HyperEVM)

Data fetched 2026-10-16 20:58:46 to 20:58:49 UTC from the Hyperliquid public info API (https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info). Live mid at the l2Book fetch: best bid 81715.0, best ask 81716.0, mid 81715.5.

Decision

{
  "direction": "long",
  "leverage": 750,
  "take_profit_bp": 12,
  "take_profit_price": 81813.5586,
  "bust_distance_bp": 8.5333,
  "bust_price_estimate": 81645.77,
  "expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": 67.3,
  "confidence": 0.5,
  "regime": "trending_up",
  "key_levels": { "support": 81624, "resistance": 81803 },
  "entry_mid": 81715.5,
  "data_time_utc": "2026-10-16T20:58:49Z",
  "reasoning": "BTC is in a 3-hour recovery from the 80772 session low (+55 bp over 3h, +16 bp over the last hour) with higher 1m lows at 81480, 81624 and 81676, price above the 1m/5m/15m EMAs, 5m EMA slopes rising, and mid 46 bp above session VWAP. Realized volatility is contracting (5m candle ranges 5-11 bp versus a 19 bp 6-hour average; 1m close-to-close stdev about 4.3 bp), so the 8.5 bp bust distance at 750x is roughly two 1-minute sigmas while a 12 bp target clears the 60-minute high (81765) and the 17:30 spike high (81803) and keeps 75% of the raw gain after the haircut. 750x was chosen over higher leverage because each extra 1 bp of bust distance matters more than the 7-23 point difference in return on margin when the per-minute sigma is 4.3 bp.",
  "risks": "Liquidation most likely comes from a single 1m flush like the 20:45 candle (8.2 bp open-to-low) or a rejection at 81765/81803 that retraces to the 81646 bust price; the perp still trades at a 3 bp discount to oracle and the top of book is ask-heavy, so a stall at resistance is the main danger."
}

The same object is saved as decision.json in the repository root.

Facts (observed in the fetched data)

ItemValueSource
Best bid / best ask / mid81715.0 / 81716.0 / 81715.5l2Book, 20:58:49 UTC
markPx / oraclePx81712.0 / 81740.0 (mark 3.4 bp below oracle)metaAndAssetCtxs
premium−2.94 bpmetaAndAssetCtxs
funding (hourly)+0.00125%metaAndAssetCtxs
openInterest41181.9 BTCmetaAndAssetCtxs
24h notional volume2.88 B USDmetaAndAssetCtxs
prevDayPx82100 (mid is −46.8 bp vs prior day)metaAndAssetCtxs
24h high / low82898 / 80772, mid at 44% of range15m candles
6h high / low82072 / 807725m candles
60m high / low81765 / 814801m candles
Rate of change5m −5.2 bp, 15m +5.3 bp, 30m +17.7 bp, 60m +15.9 bp, 3h +54.9 bp, 6h −30.8 bp, 24h −77.3 bpcandles vs mid
Mid vs EMAs1m EMA9 +2.2, 1m EMA21 +4.3, 5m EMA9 +7.6, 5m EMA21 +19.0, 15m EMA9 +21.3, 15m EMA21 +22.4 bpcandles
EMA slope (last vs 5 bars ago)1m EMA9 +0.1, 1m EMA21 +1.2, 5m EMA9 +9.8, 5m EMA21 +9.6, 15m EMA9 +25.4 bpcandles
Session VWAP (00:00 UTC, 5m data available from 14:55)81344, mid +45.6 bp above5m candles
24h VWAP81759, mid −5.4 bp below15m candles
1m close-to-close stdev15m 4.36 bp, 30m 3.66 bp, 60m 4.31 bp1m candles
Average 1m high-low rangelast 15: 4.5 bp, last 30: 4.1 bp, last 60: 4.4 bp1m candles
Average 5m rangelast 6: 7.6 bp, last 12: 9.3 bp, last 72 (6h): 19.5 bp5m candles
Average 15m range, 24h27.8 bp15m candles
Book within 10 bp of mid (top 20 levels returned)bids 60.4 BTC, asks 77.1 BTC, imbalance −0.12l2Book
Last 10 tradesbuy 2.85 BTC vs sell 0.05 BTC, average size 0.29 BTC, span 10 srecentTrades
Funding history 15:00-20:00+0.0010% to +0.0013% hourly, premium −2.2 to −4.2 bp every hourfundingHistory
1m volumelast 5 avg 41 BTC vs 60m avg 21 BTC1m candles

Adverse excursion against the bust distance

Share of candles whose high−open or open−low exceeded the bust distance:

LeverageBust distance1m candles (last 61)5m candles (last 73)
750x8.53 bp4 (7%)56 (77%)
800x7.70 bp7 (11%)57 (78%)
900x6.31 bp8 (13%)64 (88%)
1000x5.20 bp11 (18%)65 (89%)

Within the last hour the only 1m candles that moved more than 8.5 bp against a long on an open-to-low basis were none; the largest open-to-low was 8.2 bp (20:45). The largest open-to-high was 8.0 bp (20:52).

Path simulation, first touch of target vs bust, 30-minute horizon

Entering at each candle open and walking forward. A candle that touched both target and bust is counted as a loss.

DataLeverage / targetLong W / L / unresolvedShort W / L / unresolved
1m, last 60 min750x / 12 bp33 / 16 / 117 / 44 / 9
1m, last 60 min750x / 15 bp18 / 16 / 262 / 46 / 12
1m, last 60 min1000x / 10 bp32 / 23 / 511 / 45 / 4
5m, last 6 h750x / 12 bp26 / 43 / 333 / 38 / 1
5m, last 6 h1000x / 10 bp24 / 48 / 028 / 44 / 0

Haircut table (BTC parameters from the brief)

TargetShare of raw gain keptReturn on margin at 750x800x900x1000x
8 bp69.2%42%44%50%55%
10 bp72.4%54%58%65%72%
12 bp74.7%67%72%81%90%
15 bp77.1%87%93%104%116%
20 bp79.7%120%128%143%159%

Inferences

  • Direction long. The 3-hour recovery with higher 1m lows, price above every EMA tested, rising 5m EMA slopes, and above-average 1m volume on the up-candles (20:44, 20:50, 20:52, 20:56) is the main evidence. The 1m path simulation over the last hour strongly favours long, but that sample is the uptrend itself and overstates the edge.
  • Against long. The 5m simulation over 6 hours slightly favours short because that window contains the 17:00-17:30 selloff. The perp trades 3 bp under oracle with a negative premium every hour since 15:00 (persistent background state, not a fresh signal), the top of book is ask-heavy, and the day is still down 47 bp versus the prior day. The last 5 minutes are −5 bp.
  • Regime: trending_up on the 1-3 hour horizon, inside a down day. Volatility is contracting from a very volatile afternoon (15m ranges of 40-117 bp between 15:00 and 19:30) toward 5-11 bp 5m ranges.
  • Leverage 750x. 1m sigma is about 4.3 bp, so 8.5 bp of bust distance is about two sigmas per minute. At 1000x the 5.2 bp bust was exceeded by 18% of 1m candles in the last hour versus 7% at 750x, while the return on margin for a 12 bp target only rises from 67% to 90%. The survival difference dominates.
  • Target 12 bp (81813.56). It sits above the 60-minute high (81765) and marginally above the 17:30 spike high (81803), so a fill requires a genuine breakout, but 12 bp keeps 75% of the raw gain versus 69% at 8 bp, and in the last hour 33 of 60 1m entry points reached +12 bp before −8.5 bp. A 15 bp target left 26 of 60 entries unresolved within 30 minutes, which is too slow for the brief.
  • Time of day. 21:00 UTC Friday is after the US equity close. No US macro releases remain today (Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were at 13:15 UTC per the TD Economics calendar linked below) and no Fed speakers were found for this evening, so no scheduled event should hit inside the 30-minute window.

Uncertainty and unanswered questions

  • No BTC-specific news for 2026-10-16 was found through web search; the cause of the 17:00-17:30 UTC drop to 80772 and the sharp rebound is unknown. A repeat of that headline-driven move would liquidate either direction instantly.
  • The l2Book with nSigFigs 5 returns only 20 levels per side, all within about 2 bp of mid, so resting liquidity between entry and the 12 bp target or the 8.5 bp bust could not be measured.
  • recentTrades returns only the last 10 prints (10 seconds), so the cumulative volume delta figure is not meaningful beyond the immediate tape.
  • Open interest change versus price change could not be computed because only one OI snapshot is available from the API without historical polling.
  • No liquidation heatmap or other-exchange order flow was consulted; those sources were out of reach within the time budget.
  • The 0.2 bp deadband, scale formula, and 2% win fee were taken from the brief as given and not verified against PaperTrade's contract.
  • The decision is a 50% confidence call. The expected value is roughly neutral given a 4.8 bp bust trigger offset; the trade is a bet that the hour-long upward drift continues for one more leg before the next flush.

Sources

  • Hyperliquid info API, POST https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info with the candleSnapshot (1m/5m/15m), metaAndAssetCtxs, l2Book (nSigFigs 5), recentTrades and fundingHistory requests described in the brief. Raw responses were fetched 2026-10-16 20:58:46-20:58:49 UTC.
  • TD Economics weekly calendar for the week of 2026-10-09 listing the 2026-10-16 US releases: https://economics.td.com/domains/economics.td.com/documents/reports/bottom-line/tables/2026-10-09/upcoming.htm
  • Web search for BTC news on 2026-10-16 returned no same-day reporting (results were 2022-2025 articles and are not cited).
file
report.md · 9.1 KB

Work

  1. Posted4 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #11984 files changed

    Done. The trade decision is written and committed, and the report is in place for upload.

    Decision: long BTC-USD at 750x with a 12 bp take-profit, based on the live Hyperliquid mid of 81715.5 at 20:58:49 UTC.

    FieldValue
    Take-profit price81813.56
    Bust distance8.53 bp
    Bust price estimate81645.77
    Net return on margin if hit67.3%
    Confidence0.5

    Why long: BTC has recovered 55 bp over three hours from the 80772 session low with higher one-minute lows, sits above every EMA tested on 1m, 5m and 15m, and is 46 bp above session VWAP. Volatility is contracting, with 1m close-to-close sigma near 4.3 bp, so the 8.5 bp bust at 750x is roughly two sigmas per minute. Higher leverage was rejected because 1000x shrinks the bust to 5.2 bp, which 18% of the last hour's one-minute candles exceeded, for only a modest gain in return.

    Uncertainty, stated in the report: the perp trades 3 bp under oracle with an ask-heavy top of book, the 6-hour 5m simulation slightly favours short, no same-day BTC news was found, and the order book call only returns 20 levels so liquidity toward the target could not be measured. No US macro releases remain today per the TD Economics calendar.

    Files:

    • artifacts/report.md holds the decision JSON, the fact table with API sources, the inferences, and the open questions. It is untracked for the daemon to upload.
    • decision.json in the repo root is the bare output object, verified consistent with the formulas.
    • tools/fetch.sh and tools/metrics.mjs reproduce the data pull and the basis-point metrics.
    • README.md describes the question and limits.

    One caveat: the decision is tied to the 20:58 UTC snapshot and should not be executed at a materially different price.

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    README.mddecision.jsontools/fetch.shtools/metrics.mjs
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