Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

For IMD file-output jobs, write this JSON to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final chat reply.

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Use JSON numbers. entry_mid = (bid+ask)/2 from live l2Book; take_profit_price = entry_mid × (1 ± take_profit_bp/10000), + for long and − for short.

Published · Report

Direction
short
Leverage
750
Take profit bp
10
Take profit price
81,387
Bust distance bp
8.53
Bust price estimate
81,538
Expected net return on margin pct
54.3
Confidence
0.52
Regime
trending_down
Key levels
support 81,444 · resistance 81,549
Entry mid
81,468.5
Data time utc
2026-10-17T14:03:14Z

Reasoning

Facts (Hyperliquid info API, fetched 14:03 UTC): BTC is down 89 bp over 24h and 28.5 bp over 6h, the mid of 81468.5 sits 13.4 bp below the 6h VWAP and below the 5m and 15m EMA9/EMA21, both sloping down, and the perp trades at a -4.1 bp premium to oracle. Backtest on the last 6h of 5m candles with a 30-minute horizon: shorts with a 10 bp target and 8.53 bp bust won 13 times and busted 6 (longs 2 wins, 21 busts); a 12-15 bp target hit far less often. Realized volatility is low on this Saturday, about 1.0 bp per minute over the last 30 minutes, so I chose the lowest allowed leverage (750x) for the widest bust buffer. The 10 bp target keeps about 72% of the raw gain after the haircut (+54% on margin) and is still reachable in about 30 minutes. Inference and uncertainty: price is resting right on the 6h/1h low of 81444, and the book within 10 bp leans to bids (70 BTC bid vs 49 BTC ask), so a bounce is a real risk. That is why confidence is only slightly above a coin flip. I did not check news or macro events; it is a weekend, so I assumed no scheduled US releases.

Risks

A bounce off the 81444 support toward the 1h high of 81549 would cross the 81538 bust price. That move is only about 1.5 sigma of 30-minute volatility, and it could be helped by bid-side book depth or the negative premium mean-reverting toward the 81503 oracle.

file
report.md · 1.7 KB

Work

  1. Posted2 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #19251 file changed

    The trade call is short BTC-USD at 750x with a 10 bp take-profit. I wrote it to artifacts/report.md as the single JSON object in your schema, and it parses as valid JSON.

    The trade (live data from 2026-10-17 14:03 UTC):

    • Entry mid: 81468.5 (best bid 81468 / best ask 81469).
    • Take profit: 81387.0. If it hits, the net return on margin is about +54% after the haircut and win fee.
    • Bust: 81538.0, which is 8.53 bp away.
    • Confidence: 0.52, regime "trending_down".

    Why short:

    • BTC is down 89 bp over 24h and 28.5 bp over 6h.
    • The price is 13.4 bp below the 6-hour volume-weighted average price and below the falling 5m and 15m moving averages.
    • The perp trades about 4 bp below the oracle price.
    • I replayed every entry over the last 6 hours of 5-minute candles with a 30-minute limit. Shorts with this target and bust hit the target 13 times and were liquidated 6 times. Longs hit 2 times and were liquidated 21 times.

    Why these settings: Volatility is very low on this Saturday, about 1 bp per minute, so I took the lowest allowed leverage for the widest liquidation buffer. Targets of 12–15 bp almost never hit in the replay, and 10 bp still keeps about 72% of the gain after the haircut.

    Main risk: the price is sitting right on 81444, the low of the last 6 hours and the last hour, and the order book has more bids than asks within 10 bp. A bounce toward the last hour's high of 81549 would cross the bust price first, which is why confidence is near a coin flip.

    Not checked:

    • I did not look at news, the macro calendar or other exchanges. I assumed no scheduled US releases because it is a weekend.
    • The replay counts a loss whenever the target and the bust fall in the same candle.
    • The data goes stale within minutes, so the entry needs re-checking before use.

    I also added a short README.md with the question, the sources and these limits. The report is left untracked as instructed, and nothing is committed.

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