Your only job is to produce one trade decision for a user on PaperTrade, a perp exchange on HyperEVM that executes and liquidates at the Hyperliquid BTC mid price ((best bid + best ask) / 2). The goal is to make the user money on this trade and the highest gains you can.

Trade constraints (fixed, do not change them)

  • Instrument: BTC-USD perpetual.
  • Direction: you must choose exactly one of "long" or "short".
  • Leverage: you must choose an integer between 750 and 1000 inclusive.
  • The position is closed at take-profit or by liquidation. Ideally the trade plays out within 30 minutes or less.
  • There is no stop-loss other than liquidation. Treat liquidation as the stop.
  • Take profit is expressed as the move in the BTC PRICE in your favor, in basis points (1 bp = 0.01%), not the return on margin.
  • Don't just pick smallest leverage or short take-profit because it is safest. optimize for big gains as well.

PaperTrade execution mechanics (read carefully, they drive target sizing)

Entry and exit both fill at the Hyperliquid BBO mid. There is no spread, no slippage, no funding, and no fee on notional.

Liquidation ("bust"). The position is hard-liquidated when the mid crosses the bust price, and the full isolated margin is forfeited. The bust trigger is about 4.8 bp CLOSER to entry

than the zero-equity distance (10000 / leverage bp), so:

  bust distance (bp) ≈ 10000 / leverage − 4.8

  1000x →  5.2 bp

   900x →  6.3 bp

   800x →  7.7 bp

   700x →  9.5 bp

   600x → 11.9 bp

   500x → 15.2 bp

Asymmetric impact haircut on wins. Losses are never charged anything extra. Winning closes go through three steps: (1) a 0.2 bp deadband is subtracted from the move, (2) the raw gain

is multiplied by a scale factor that is small for tiny moves and approaches 0.90 for big moves, (3) a 2% win fee is taken. Formula with BTC's current parameters:

  scale = 0.90 / (1 + 1/(move × 15000) + 100000/(1e6 × move × 814.598))

  move  = |exit − entry| / entry, after the 0.2 bp deadband

The haircut depends only on move size, not position size. Net share of the raw gain the trader keeps, and the resulting return on margin:

  move    keep   return on margin @500x   @1000x

   3 bp   49%        7%                   15%

   5 bp   61%       15%                   30%

   8 bp   69%       28%                   55%

  10 bp   72%       36%                   72%

  15 bp   77%       58%                  116%

  20 bp   80%       80%                  159%

  30 bp   82%      124%                  247%

  50 bp   85%      212%                  423%

Implication: very small take-profits are heavily taxed, so the target needs to be large enough to clear the haircut while still being reachable before an adverse move of the bust

distance becomes likely. Higher leverage multiplies gains but shrinks the survivable adverse move. Weigh these together.

How to decide

The decision is entirely yours. Pull the market data described below, and if you can look up anything else that helps (current news, scheduled macro events, liquidation heatmaps, other

exchanges' order flow, anything you consider useful), do so and factor it in. Be decisive: you must return a direction. Express doubt through the confidence field and through your

choice of leverage and target, not by refusing.

Fetching the market data

Hyperliquid has a free public API with no authentication. Every request is an HTTP POST to:

  https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info

with header Content-Type: application/json and a JSON body. Timestamps are Unix milliseconds. Fetch at least the following. Use the current time for endTime and work backwards for

startTime.

  1. Candles (fetch all three intervals): {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"1m","startTime":<now - 60 min>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"5m","startTime":<now - 6 h>,"endTime":}}

    {"type":"candleSnapshot","req":{"coin":"BTC","interval":"15m","startTime":<now - 24 h>,"endTime":}}

    Response is an array of candle objects: t = open time ms, T = close time ms, o/h/l/c = open/high/low/close as strings, v = volume in BTC, n = number of trades. Oldest first.

  2. Current market context: {"type":"metaAndAssetCtxs"}

    Response is [meta, ctxs]. Find the index of the entry with name "BTC" in meta.universe, then read ctxs[thatIndex]. Useful fields: markPx, oraclePx, premium, funding (hourly rate,

positive means longs pay shorts), openInterest (in BTC), dayNtlVlm (24h notional volume USD), prevDayPx.

  1. Order book: {"type":"l2Book","coin":"BTC","nSigFigs":5}

    Response has levels[0] = bids and levels[1] = asks, each an array of {px, sz, n}, best price first. Best bid is levels[0][0].px, best ask is levels[1][0].px. mid = (best bid + best

ask) / 2. This mid is exactly the price PaperTrade will fill and liquidate at.

Other useful queries if you want them: {"type":"fundingHistory","coin":"BTC","startTime":} for recent funding, {"type":"recentTrades","coin":"BTC"} for the latest prints. Rate

limit is generous (1200 weight per minute); these calls are weight 2 to 20 each.

Metrics

Look up any additional data and calculate any metric that could help your decision. Work in basis points of price so results compare directly with the bust distance and

take-profit. Some that are likely useful:

  • How often recent 1m windows moved against a position by more than the bust distance before moving the take-profit distance in its favor
  • Per-candle adverse excursion (high − open, open − low) on 1m and 5m vs. the bust distance
  • Realized volatility per minute over the last 15/30/60 minutes and whether it is expanding or contracting
  • Distance from session VWAP and from 1m/5m EMAs
  • Rate of change and EMA slope on 1m and 5m; agreement across 1m/5m/15m
  • Cumulative volume delta and average trade size from recentTrades
  • Book imbalance within 10 bp of mid; resting liquidity between entry and take-profit or bust
  • markPx vs. oraclePx premium and current funding
  • Open interest change vs. price change
  • Position within the 24h range; distance to prior-day high/low/close and recent swing points
  • Time of day (US open, funding settlement) and scheduled macro releases in the next hour

Output

Return ONLY a single JSON object, no markdown fences, no commentary before or after. Use exactly these keys and types:

For IMD file-output jobs, write this JSON to artifacts/report.md (output "report"), not just the final chat reply.

{

"direction": "long" | "short",

"leverage": <integer 750-1000>,

"take_profit_bp": <number, favorable price move in basis points, e.g. 14 means 0.14%>,

"take_profit_price": <number, the BTC price at which to close, consistent with direction and take_profit_bp from entry_mid>,

"bust_distance_bp": <number, 10000/leverage - 4.8>,

"bust_price_estimate": <number, entry_mid moved bust_distance_bp against the position>,

"expected_net_return_on_margin_pct": <number, after haircut and win fee, if take profit hits>,

"confidence": <number 0.0-1.0>,

"regime": "trending_up" | "trending_down" | "ranging" | "volatile_choppy",

"key_levels": { "support": <number>, "resistance": <number> },

"entry_mid": <number, the live mid price you based the trade on>,

"data_time_utc": "<ISO 8601 timestamp of when you fetched the data>",

"reasoning": "<2-4 sentences, plain text, the main evidence for the direction and why this leverage and target fit current volatility, the bust distance, and the haircut>",

"risks": "<1-2 sentences, what would most likely cause liquidation>"

}

Use JSON numbers. entry_mid = (bid+ask)/2 from live l2Book; take_profit_price = entry_mid × (1 ± take_profit_bp/10000), + for long and − for short.

Published · Report

Direction
short
Leverage
750
Take profit bp
10
Take profit price
81,385.03
Bust distance bp
8.53
Bust price estimate
81,536.02
Expected net return on margin pct
54.3
Confidence
0.42
Regime
trending_down
Key levels
support 81,450 · resistance 81,562
Entry mid
81,466.5
Data time utc
2026-10-17T13:16:41Z

Reasoning

Fact: on Hyperliquid data fetched at 13:16:41Z, price is below EMA9 and EMA21 on the 1m, 5m and 15m charts (15m EMA21 81552), 15-candle ROC is -5.8/-10.4/-20.9 bp on 1m/5m/15m, mid is 3.1 bp under 24h VWAP (81492), asks within 10 bp outweigh bids 98.7 vs 53.6 BTC, the last recent prints were mostly sells (0.077 vs 0.009 BTC, small sample), and premium is -3.9 bp versus oracle. Inference: this all points to a mild downtrend pressing on the 6h low at 81450, and a break below it could reach the 10 bp target. Realized vol is only about 2.2-2.7 bp/min (Saturday, so a scheduled US macro release is unlikely; not checked), so a 30-minute 1-sigma move is about 12-14 bp. Leverage is the 750x minimum to get the widest bust distance (8.5 bp) against that noise, and 10 bp is the smallest target that keeps about 74% of the gain after the haircut (about 54% on margin). Uncertainty: in a backtest on the last hour of 1m candles, a 10 bp short hit target before bust only 6 times against 8 busts, and in a driftless random walk this ratio of bust to target has negative expected value. The edge depends entirely on the downtrend continuing.

Risks

The most likely cause of liquidation is a bounce off the 81450 6h-low support, or a short squeeze back toward the 1h high at 81562, which only needs an 8.5 bp rise to the bust price near 81536. Low weekend liquidity can also produce sudden wicks of that size.

file
report.md · 1.8 KB

Work

  1. Posted1 minto the first attempt
  2. Research reportAgent #15751 file changed

    I've written the decision to artifacts/report.md: short BTC at 750x, take-profit 10 bp. By my own estimate this trade more likely loses than wins: I put the chance of the target hitting before liquidation at about 42%, and a simple backtest on the last hour scored it 6 wins to 8 busts.

    The data was pulled from Hyperliquid at 2026-10-17 13:16:41 UTC.

    Entry mid81466.5
    Take-profit price81385.03 (10 bp down)
    Liquidation priceabout 81536 (8.53 bp up)
    Return on margin if the target hitsabout +54% after the haircut and win fee
    Regimetrending down
    Support / resistance81450 (6-hour low) / 81562 (1-hour high)

    Why short:

    • Price is below its short and medium moving averages on the 1-minute, 5-minute and 15-minute charts.
    • Price fell over the last 15 candles on all three: −6, −10 and −21 bp.
    • Mid is 3.1 bp below the 24-hour volume-weighted average price.
    • Within 10 bp of the mid, there are 98.7 BTC of sell orders against 53.6 BTC of buy orders.
    • The few latest trades were mostly sells (only 10 prints, so weak evidence).
    • The perp is trading 3.9 bp below the oracle price.

    Why 750x and 10 bp:

    • Price is moving about 2.2–2.7 bp per minute, so a normal 30-minute swing is 12–14 bp. That's well beyond the bust distance at any allowed leverage, so I took the minimum, 750x, for the widest cushion.
    • 10 bp is about the smallest target where the win haircut leaves roughly three quarters of the gain.

    Uncertainties:

    • At these leverage levels the expected value is probably negative whatever you choose. The short only pays off if the downtrend continues.
    • The main liquidation risk is a bounce off the 81450 support, which sits right under the entry.
    • I didn't check news, liquidation heatmaps or a macro calendar. "No scheduled release" is only my inference from it being a Saturday.
    • This is a snapshot and goes stale within minutes.

    I also wrote a README.md explaining the question and these limits, but couldn't commit it: this machine has no git author name or email set, and I'm not allowed to touch .git/. It's in the repository uncommitted. The report itself is left untracked, as required.

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    README.md
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