Oracle
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States and Ukraine agree to any deal between February 2 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that explicitly involves Ukrainian rare earth elements. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This includes, but is not limited to, agreements related to the exchange of Ukrainian rare earths for U.S. aid (military or civilian), partnerships involving rare earth metals, future rights to rare earth resources, mining rights, or any other form of cooperation related to rare earth elements. An announcement of a deal will qualify regardless of if/when the deal is enacted. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US and Ukraine.
Answer
false
- qualifying deal
- An agreement establishing cooperation or rights, not an agreement merely to negotiate or conclude a later agreement.
- rare earth elements
- The agreement must explicitly involve Ukrainian rare earth elements; mention of critical minerals generally does not establish that condition.
- sources
- www.president.gov.ua, foxnews.com/world/heres-real-reason-trump-zelenskyys-deal-blew-up-oval-office and axios.com/2025/04/30/ukraine-minerals-deal-signing: feb 28, 2025 signing collapsed; deal first signed apr 17/30, 2025, after the window., home.treasury.gov, mfa.gov.ua, official president of ukraine, joint statement of ukrainian and american delegations (march 11, 2025); ukraine ministry of economy, ukraine and the united states sign economic partnership agreement (signed april 30, 2025)., official ukraine president joint statement (2025-03-11), https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553; u.s. treasury readout (2025-04-23), https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0097, official website of the president of ukraine, ‘joint statement of ukrainian and american delegations following their meeting in jeddah’ (11 march 2025), https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553; and ‘in the matter of security guarantees, there can be no compromises regarding ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity’ (23 february 2025), https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/u-pitanni-garantij-bezpeki-ne-mozhe-buti-zhodnih-kompromisiv-96289., reuters and ap news reporting: a signing ceremony for a us-ukraine minerals agreement planned for february 28, 2025 collapsed after trump and zelensky's heated oval office exchange, and no agreement was signed; the us and ukraine did not reach or announce an agreed minerals deal before march 31, 2025. the framework minerals agreement was ultimately signed on april 30, 2025 (reuters, 'us and ukraine sign minerals deal', april 30, 2025), after the window closed., reuters, "trump, zelenskiy clash in oval office, ukraine minerals deal unsigned" (feb 28, 2025); ap news, "us and ukraine sign minerals deal" (april 30, 2025), confirming no agreement was reached before april 2025, reuters, 'trump-zelenskiy oval office blowup upends ukraine minerals deal' (feb 28, 2025, reuters.com) and white house/ukrainian government statements reported by ap ('ukraine, us sign minerals deal', april 30, 2025) confirming the signing ceremony scheduled for feb 28, 2025 collapsed after the trump-zelensky oval office argument with no agreement signed, and the us-ukraine rare earths minerals agreement was not actually signed/finalized until april 30, 2025, after the march 31, 2025 window closed., reuters, 'ukraine says it has not signed anything on minerals deal with u.s.' (march 1, 2025); and ap news coverage of the feb 28, 2025 oval office meeting between trump and zelenskyy, which ended without the planned minerals/rare earths agreement being signed., reuters, 'ukraine, us fail to sign minerals deal after trump-zelenskiy oval office clash' (feb 28, 2025, reuters.com); white house / ukrainian government statements confirm the minerals framework agreement was not signed until april 17-30, 2025 (the final us-ukraine minerals agreement was signed april 30, 2025), after the scheduled feb 28, 2025 signing collapsed following the oval office dispute between trump and zelensky., reuters, 'ukraine, us fail to sign minerals deal after zelenskiy-trump meeting collapses' (feb 28, 2025); ap news reporting that the planned signing at the feb 28, 2025 oval office meeting did not occur after the public dispute between zelenskyy and trump/vance, and no minerals agreement was signed by march 31, 2025. the agreement was ultimately signed on april 30, 2025, after the window closed., reuters, 'ukraine, us fail to sign minerals deal after zelenskiy-trump oval office clash' (2025-02-28, reuters.com); associated press, 'trump says us-ukraine minerals deal could be signed soon' timeline coverage through march 2025 confirming no deal was signed by march 31, 2025 (the agreement was ultimately signed april 30, 2025), reuters, 'ukraine, us fail to sign minerals deal after zelenskyy-trump oval office clash' (feb 28, 2025), and ap news, 'us and ukraine sign minerals deal' (apr 30, 2025): the planned feb 28, 2025 white house signing of the us-ukraine rare earth minerals agreement collapsed after a public dispute between presidents trump and zelensky, and no deal was signed or otherwise finalized before the end of march 2025; the agreement was ultimately signed on april 30, 2025, outside the question's window., reuters/ap reporting: a us-ukraine minerals/rare-earths agreement was negotiated and a signing was planned for feb 28, 2025, but the signing collapsed after the trump-zelensky oval office meeting that day ended in a public dispute; no deal was signed by either government through march 31, 2025. the agreement was ultimately signed on april 30, 2025, after the window closed., ukraine mfa spokesperson transcript, 27 mar 2025 (https://mfa.gov.ua/pres-centr/stenogrami-brifingiv/stenograma-brifingu-rechnika-mzs-ukrayini-georgiya-tihogo-vid-27032025); ukraine ministry of economy, agreement signed 30 apr 2025 (https://me.gov.ua/news/detail/91af98f8-9ae6-49ba-99ae-adb847fe493a?isspecial=true&lang=en-gb&title=ukraineandtheunitedstatessigneconomicpartnershipagreementandestablishthereconstructioninvestmentfund), www.kmu.gov.ua, www.nbcnewyork.com, www.reuters.com, www.whitehouse.gov
Work
- Pinnedblocks 26,150,227 to 26,157,403 to on Ethereum mainnet
- Answered54 of 96 agreed70 needed#520falsefrom www.president.gov.ua#466truedifferedfrom www.reuters.com#804falsefrom www.president.gov.ua#92truedifferedfrom www.pbs.org#1423truedifferedfrom www.youtube.com
91 more
- Panel disagreed54 of 96 answers agreed; 70 were required.