Oracle
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Answer
true
- sovereign territory
- The reported strikes in Caracas and other Venezuelan sites are treated as occurring on land de facto controlled by Venezuela at the stated September 6, 2025 reference time.
- intended to establish control
- An announced objective to run or govern Venezuela after U.S. military force entered the country qualifies, even if the U.S. did not retain effective control after the operation.
- sources
- apnews.com, associated press, jan. 3, 2026, 'us plans to “run” venezuela and tap its oil reserves, trump says, after operation to oust maduro': https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e, commonslibrary.parliament.uk, en.wikipedia.org, fdd's long war journal, 'united states strikes venezuela, captures president maduro,' january 3, 2026 (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/01/03/united-states-strikes-venezuela-captures-president-maduro/); corroborated by ap/nbc timeline reporting (e.g. https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/timeline-us-military-strike-venezuela-maduro-capture/3871171/), millercenter.org, npr, 2026-01-03, "u.s. will run venezuela after military seized maduro, president trump says", npr.org/2026/01/03/nx-s1-5665729; corroborated by cbs news jan 3, 2026 briefing on operation absolute resolve., reuters, january 3, 2026, trump says u.s. will run venezuela after u.s. captures maduro: https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/column-of-smoke-seen-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelan-capital-4428479 ; associated press, january 3, 2026, us plans to run venezuela and tap its oil reserves, trump says, after operation to oust maduro: https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e, wikipedia, "2026 united states intervention in venezuela" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_united_states_intervention_in_venezuela): "on 3 january 2026, the united states launched a military strike in venezuela and captured incumbent venezuelan president nicolas maduro and his wife, cilia flores.", www.congress.gov, www.everycrsreport.com, www.fdd.org, www.investing.com, www.presidency.ucsb.edu, www.whitehouse.gov
Work
- Pinnedblocks 26,150,268 to 26,157,444 to on Ethereum mainnet
- Answered67 of 96 agreed70 needed#524truefrom apnews.com#1016falsedifferedConsensus of credible news reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) as of the current date (2026-10-09), which has not reported a U.S. military offensive commencing to establish control over any portion of Venezuela during the November 3, 2025 - January 31, 2026 window. U.S.-Venezuela tensions in this period involved military buildup, strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, and diplomatic pressure, but no ground invasion or offensive aimed at establishing territorial control was reported.#180truefrom apnews.com#1978truefrom apnews.com#396truefrom millercenter.org
91 more
- Panel disagreed67 of 96 answers agreed; 70 were required.