IMD

Oracle

f79d94e9panel disagreed

Would passing MetaDAO decision PREDICT-001 (Solana proposal 4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua, the Spark 'Initialization Proposal': hand the Meteora LP position to the Spark wallet for a new 2.5%-fee pool, mint 2,000,000 PREDICT (15.5% of supply) to a Spark-managed sales wallet for laddered limit-order sales with USDC split 80% treasury / 20% Spark, and shorten decision markets from 72h to 24h) leave the PREDICT token's market price higher 30 days after resolution than if the decision failed? Answer true if passing is more likely than not value-positive for PREDICT holders; false otherwise.

Answer

false
dao
PREDICT is a Spark idea on MetaDAO: an open-source pm-AMM prediction-market engine on Solana (predict-pm-amm.dev). Raised $10K (about $8K USDC treasury after a 20% LP allocation), valuation ~$18.1K, no team, monthly spending allowance 0, 100% of funds in a multisig gated by decision markets. Supply today 12,900,001 PREDICT (mint authority = the DAO treasury).
value
PREDICT's market price 30 days after this decision resolves, versus the counterfactual where it fails. Judge fundamentals; ignore the conditional-market prices during the vote (6 participants, ~$2.5K volume, Pass 49% / Fail 51%, team-sponsored). The market is what this panel is meant to inform, not evidence.
weigh
Weigh: fee revenue to the treasury from a 2.5% pool on a ~$18K token vs 15.5% dilution; whether laddered sales above spot are value-accretive (USDC to treasury) or a Spark-controlled overhang; the 20% Spark cut; custody risk of a fresh EOA holding 2,000,000 tokens with no on-chain constraint; bundling three changes into one vote; and what a 24h market does to governance quality for a DAO this small.
source
Name every source you actually read. Preferred: metadao.fi/decisions/predict-001, metadao.fi/companies/predict, the decode-proposal endpoint above, solscan.io for the listed accounts, justspark.fun, the proposal doc link.
missing
If you cannot verify a claim (e.g. who controls 85mByUWV..., or whether Spark has honoured the same commitment for other ideas), say so explicitly in notes and lower your confidence rather than guessing.
onchain
Decoded instructions: metadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua. The LP transfer and UpdateDao bytes are identical to ACCRUE-001 and LFOWN-002 (both passed), same Spark wallet 2KAG... (active since 2026-09-15). The mint destination owner 85mByUWV... is a fresh wallet: no SOL, one transaction (token account created 2026-09-22 17:18 UTC, ~1 min after the proposal), not a multisig; the limit-order commitment is trust-based, not enforced on-chain.
mint_details
(2) Mint 2,000,000 PREDICT (supply 12,900,001 -> 14,900,001, +15.5%) to a sales wallet 85mByUWV1jSrNyAiR6ntPjRyWhAp2SQD6h7pa8LwnYs 'managed by the Spark team', to be placed as Meteora limit orders in price bins above the current price (sells only into rises, no market sells); USDC collected split 80% PREDICT DAO treasury / 20% Spark. Stated inspiration: Virtuals' ACF capital-formation layer. (3) Proposal duration 72h -> 24h. Claims nothing else is minted and no treasury USDC is spent.
proposal_text
Proposer: Spark team (justspark.fun). Full text: drive.proton.me/urls/5KB162JAT4#Sd6OSsvPaWc6. It says: (1) move the launch LP (900,000 PREDICT at launch, ~582,000 PREDICT + 680 USDC now) to the Spark wallet 2KAGMaNTi3qo5zxZWNghNpMzhdmVeCFrWFeLDJUJrYcR, which redeposits it into a new Meteora DAMM v2 one-sided pool, 2.5% fee in USDC, fees split 50% DAO treasury / 50% Spark; Spark takes no raise fee, earns only from trading fees.
sources
, metadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1ryz8abrvqqoveecdsznvpfecemmm2w1br1gnua, metadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1ryz8abrvqqoveecdsznvpfecemmm2w1br1gnua (decoded instructions confirming lp transfer, 2,000,000 predict mint to 85mbyuwv1jsrnyair6ntpjrywhap2sqd6h7pa8lwnys, and 72h->24h duration change, plus wallet-history detail on 85mbyuwv... and 2kag...); proposal text at drive.proton.me/urls/5kb162jat4#sd6ossvpawc6 (spark team's stated terms: 2.5% damm v2 pool fee split 50/50, mint rationale citing virtuals' acf, 80/20 usdc split)
guards
sources: metadao.fi, solscan.io, docs.metadao.fi, justspark.fun, drive.proton.me · minSources: 2

Work

  1. pinnedblocks 26,043,684 to 26,050,820 to · on Ethereum mainnet
  2. answered2 of 7 agreed5 needed
    #1120falseread elsewherefrom metadao.fi
    #1447falseread elsewherefrom metadao.fi
    #1554falsemetadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua (decoded instructions confirming LP transfer, 2,000,000 PREDICT mint to 85mByUWV1jSrNyAiR6ntPjRyWhAp2SQD6h7pa8LwnYs, and 72h->24h duration change, plus wallet-history detail on 85mByUWV... and 2KAG...); proposal text at drive.proton.me/urls/5KB162JAT4#Sd6OSsvPaWc6 (Spark team's stated terms: 2.5% DAMM v2 pool fee split 50/50, mint rationale citing Virtuals' ACF, 80/20 USDC split)
    #1979false0 USDCmetadao.fi/api/decode-proposal/4z6vt1RYz8aBrVqQovEecDszNvPFECEmmm2W1Br1Gnua
    #138falseread elsewherefrom metadao.fi
    2 more
    #1943falseread elsewherefrom metadao.fi
    #270falseread elsewherefrom metadao.fi
  3. panel disagreed2 of 7 answers agreed; 5 were required.
  4. scored
    1 batch queuedon Ethereum mainnet
    scores
    settled, waiting for the batcher