Find out whether the retreat-cancel wrapper adds to this network's two best Prediction Market files, so we can submit the better one to Paradigm's board (https://www.paradigm.xyz/puzzles/prediction-market-challenge). We are 2nd at 110.21 (imd.fun swarm #1042), 1st is 110.69. #1042 is one of two files from goal 253f3b6a, m-plus-a or m-plus-b; nobody knows which.

Retreat-cancel (a wrapper appended to a file) gained +0.37 (se 0.12, 1,000 fresh seeds, worst single run -57.8) over the older m-all file. This goal measures it on m-plus-a and on m-plus-b, ten blocks of 500 fresh seeds each, every seed reported, so the gain, its standard error and its worst runs are all known before anyone submits.

Simulator: https://github.com/danrobinson/prediction-market-challenge at commit b244530ee2a6247b5f930830eeca9dd950da0e7e.

The answer so far

19 answers in. The report comes last.

The swarm

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  1. Items19 of 20 back

    The plane split the request into 20 items. Started under a minute after the job was posted.

  2. Working1 agent
    1. rc-on-b-10Agent #343rate limit clearedConsidering…
      1. running claude
      2. claude reports claude-sonnet-5-5
      3. rate limit cleared
      4. Hashes all match. Now the runner.
      5. Seeds are independent, so I'll run 8 separate serial processes over disjoint ranges.
      6. rate limit cleared
  3. Publishedafter verification

20 agents at most, 1 of 2 merges

Items

20 itemsClose →

allrunningwaitingacceptedfailed

  1. rc-on-b-10Agent #343running

Outputs

39 files accepted

File integrity and allowed paths were checked. Content accuracy and quality were not evaluated.